Michael, what can we expect from this
meeting that's taking place in
Copenhagen?
>> Yeah, the Copenhagen meeting, Sam, is is
EU defense ministers. So, it's very much
the nuts and bolts of the things that
they deal with. Um, this has been on in
the on the books for some time. So, it's
not an emergency meeting as a result of
the Russian attacks on Kev yesterday,
but they're talking about um getting the
defense industries gearing up properly
in Europe. And of course they they've
got in theory they've got um 800 billion
euros to spend over a decade in
rearmament and obviously they're only on
the early trenches of that but there's a
lot of coordination to do but they
undoubtedly will be talking about how to
get more military aid into Ukraine. What
Ukrainians really need which is a lot of
air defense and some deep strike
weapons, weapons that they can hit
behind the Russian lines so that they
can prevent these Russian offensives
from developing. That's the sort of
thing they'll be talking about. Not so
much the politics of the Russian attack
on Kev yesterday. That I think will go
to the Security Council which is meeting
later this afternoon in New York at the
United Nations. That's where we'll see
the politics of it. This very much is
about the literally the nuts and bolts
and the equipment that Europe is going
to produce.
>> Meanwhile though, there's a lot of
provocation, isn't there? What uh what
commentators and people like you call
this sub threshold warfare. um Russian
drones going in into German territory
for example. Just just talk us through
what's going on there and how
provocative that might end up being.
>> Yeah, I mean it happens all the time.
The Russians, of course, they're trying
to find out what are the routes for
weapons being sent to Ukraine. I must
admit when it when this war started, I
was surprised how relaxed Western
officials were about getting stuff into
Ukraine. I said, "Isn't it going to be
difficult?" They said, "No, no, there's
lots of ways. It's a big country.
There's lots of ways we can get material
in." And they have. over three years
they've they've material has flowed into
Ukraine but of course the Russians are
always trying to track it most of it you
know comes from Western Europe through
Poland or Romania and into you into
Ukraine itself um this particular issue
is because a series of drones have been
seen I don't think I don't think they've
been intercepted but they've been seen
in Tingia in the old part of of eastern
Germany and it looks as if the Russians
are trying to track some of the routes
that quite a lot of weapons are using to
get through um Germany into Poland and
then into Ukraine. So um this has come
out in the United States. The Germans
are saying, "Well, yes, we're looking at
it, but they're not certain yet what is
going on." But it's it's part of the
course, standard stuff that the the
Russians are obviously trying to work
out how they can intercept some of this
stuff, particularly as more and more of
it will be European equipment going to
Ukraine, not American equipment. And I
think the Russians will feel more
emboldened to try to maybe sabotage
European equipment or even they have
hinted attack it directly before it gets
to Ukraine.
>> Yeah. Two weeks ago we had this uh much
trumpeted Alaska summit, didn't we? What
has come of that?
>> Yeah. And here we've got Zilinski just
in the last hour saying that, you know,
the allies have agreed to wait until
Monday, give it the weekend to then make
a decision as to whether Putin is
serious about a follow-up meeting to the
Alaska summit. Most Europeans are pretty
convinced he's not serious about it. He
needs to say enough to try to uh keep
Trump on side, to keep his relationship
with Trump alive in the way that it
presently exists, but that he doesn't
want to go to a meeting. He certainly
doesn't want to talk to Zilinski
directly. And what Putin has said is,
"Well, maybe we can elevate the status
of the Istanbul talks. Instead of having
them between officials, we have them
between foreign ministers. Maybe we
could discuss it that way." But Putin is
is vehement, adamant that he will not go
into a room with Zilinski. If he gives
in on that, then that would be quite a
big concession just to have a meeting
directly with Zalinski. But he says that
he won't. And Zilinski is also now
saying that um you know we can't discuss
security guarantees simply at this
technical level. It has to be a leaders
discussion. That's what he said in the
last hour. And that we need concrete
security guarantees ratified in the
allied parliament. So Zalinsky in a
sense is raising the stakes himself by
saying look if we're going to have some
sort of talks then we have to have
realistic security guarantees not a
series of vague ideas among officials at
a lower level.
>> So we keep talking in circles. We're
going in circles. Yeah. I mean, most of
us believe that this this next peace
round or round of another peace
conference won't actually happen. Or if
it happens, it'll be about something
else. It won't be about creating a peace
deal. And all of this is shadowboxing as
the Europeans, the Ukrainians, and the
Russians are playing to Washington so
that they don't get the blame for the
breakdown because the way in which um
President Trump interprets the breakdown
as and when it happens in probably a
couple of weeks time, maybe three weeks
time, that's a guess on my part. the
rhythm of these sort of things goes in
that sort of way that when that
breakdown occurs, he will blame somebody
and that will have an effect on how far
the United States is prepared to support
Ukraine in the future.
>> Michael, thank you very much indeed.